Ups and Downs in Betting

If you're a professional bettor than maybe this article isn't for you and it will only confirm a certainty. But some might find it useful so I thought I'd share my two cents about ups and downs.

If you've been betting for a while, you may have noticed that you encounter good runs when anything you take wins, and bad runs when even your best picks lose. As football is a game of skill AND luck, it's mathematically confirmed that even when you take mega-value bets, it is possible that you will lose more than you win, or even lose more in a row. On the other hand, it is possible that even when you blindly take some bets, you might hit most of them or even all of them in a row, if Lady Luck is on your side. On the short-term of course, it won't be happening on the long-run.

You have to understand that on the asian handicap, the chances for a particular bet to win are somewhere between 40% - 60%. Now do some counting and see what the chances are to win five in a row or lose five in a row.

Ignoring the zero(s), the chances to not see black on a roulette table for 10 spins in a row, are something like 0,097%, yet it happens. Same goes down to betting and the more you bet, the more chances you have to encounter a terribly good run or/and a terribly bad run.

What people tend to easily forget is how much luck they've had on a very good betting day, to complain about the next day when anything they take goes bad. The football game is a game of skill but the luck factor has an important role on the course of a match or even a season. How many times have you seen teams dominating other teams, hitting the bar, hitting the crossbar, going one on one but failing to score, to concede on the opponents' first chance into the game? Such scenarios make good or bad runs happen, because the better teams win more times on average, but don't necessarily win on every occasion.

So before you overpraise yourself or the tipster(s) you follow for how good of a bettor you/they are, or blame you/them for losing, think about the long-term. Check some previous records, analyse things, and only then draw conclusions on whether selections were good or bad.

Teddie, the Asian Handicap Tipster